Energy Update

Wired posted this article regarding a company, Ausra, which claims that it could power 90 percent of the US grid using current solar panel technology, 9,600 square miles, and yet-to-be invented 16-hour power storage technology.

Ausra also states in the article that it can generate power at prices competitive with natural gas power generation. The key obstacle to solar is its cost efficiency, but, if this is true, possibly not for long.

Futurist Ray Kurzweil is bullish on solar, recently making this predection:

"We also see an exponential progression in the use of solar energy," he
said. "It is doubling now every two years. Doubling every two years means
multiplying by 1,000 in 20 years. At that rate we'll meet 100 percent of our
energy needs in 20 years." (Link)

Just under 10,000 square miles doesn't seem like much of a problem. In a few years, even less land will me required. If you supplemented solar with clean technologies like nuclear you could avoid having to invent 16-hour storage.

Obviously, there are other obstacles. I also wonder about the security risks of solar power. We would to ensure that it is sufficiently distributed and redundant. Those fields of panels just feel more vulnerable than the typical coal-fired plant.

There has been talk of a revolution for so long, but it seems we are getting closer to the real thing. Oil prices are the critical factor. While the current gas prices are painful, they may be our best hope for eliminating the need for oil. As Amory Lovins has noted when discussing the decline of whaling oil as a fuel source in the 19th century, "The whalers were astounded that they ran out of customers before they ran out of whales." (Link)

Tweaking the Drake Equation

I think that Craig Venter may go down as the most important scientist of the late 20th/early 21st century. He has made breath-taking discoveries and advances in biology over the last ten years and these achievements continue to pile up. Last month, he gave a fascinating lecture to the Long Now Foundation which provides an overview of his latest science, including the discovery of incredibly staggering amounts of new species in the Earth's oceans and the first successful creation of artificial life.

His science is both exquisite and simple and its implications are jaw-dropping and cosmic. Over the last twenty years, discoveries have continued to mount regarding the tenacity and ubiquity of life on Earth. It thrives everywhere and in every extremity of condition. Scientists anticipate that they may even find life in ancient subsurface lakes in Anarctica and are currently exploring ways to obtain water samples.

Our conception of life has grown expotentially in a very short time and it appears that life will continue to surprise us with its capacity to survive. For me, we have reached a tipping point. These discoveries provide overwhelming evidence that life on Earth is likely not unique.

We now know that our solar system is far from unique, that our galaxy is likely teeming with planets, many with surprising and previously unimagined properities and configurations. We now know that our planet is teeming with life of tremendous variety, permeating in places we never before imagined.

Planets are everywhere. Life is everywhere on our planet. The numbers favor life on other planets more and more each day. The only questions that remain are when we will discover proof of this and whether we will survive in order to make this discovery.

Music Recommendation

There are few things more thrilling than making a blind commitment to large collection of music without previously hearing a note of it. Over my time as an avid music consumer, I have had the opportunity to do this a few times. One such occasion was my purchase nearly ten years ago of Harry Smith's Anthology of American Folk. It's a gift that continues to pay dividends.

Just recently one of the small joys of it has been exposing my sons to the music, which seems exotic and strange to them. It contains many unique voices to them, which elicits hearty giggles from the boys. I'm hoping that the music will stick over the long-term.

(Another benefit of digital music. Its not just portable, its also an inheritance. They will start off at a young age with a vast and varied music collection that I could have only dreamed of. It's not just that they have access at home, but that they will be able to take it with them and explore).

This collection has grown so much on me over the years and contains many surprises, from the near-fossil versions of cultural staples (Stackolee) to songs with historical richness (Charles Giteau and When that Big Ship Went Down). It's a worthwhile investment.

Old news, but still worth a comment

Here's a post I did not have a chance to get to a few weeks back:

In Charles Stross's amazing sci-fi work Accelerando, a Muslim cleric is sent into space. He is sent there to apply Islamic law. In order to retrieve a disobedient daughter, one of the characters (a non-muslim) appeals to the cleric to apply the law. This sequence strikes me as at once ludricious and also depressingly realistic.

The lesson for me is that humans will attempt to apply theological law well into the future and that some humans will cynically appeal to this law when it is convenient.

Which brings me to the case of Rowan Williams, the Archbishop of Canterbury, who recently stated that he believes that the application of a separate Sharia-based law is inevitable in Great Britain. Christopher Hitchens provides a taut condemnation. The Instapundit provides links to commentary to here. One of the commentaries, provided by Jimmy Bradshaw, states that part of Williams motivation is that he hopes to pave the way for a separate Christian court. I feel both a sense of belief and disbelief that things have reached this point.

To imagine a day where Sharia law might seriously be contemplated in England seems nearly surreal. On the other hand that is the state of things in Europe.
This is often the point where the War on Terror is misunderstood, that we are engaging in a struggle of one religious ideology against another. However, it should be viewed as the struggle of global secularism vs. regional, radical traditionalism. More than ever, more people are free to say what they think, believe what they want, go where they wish, and associate and conduct their lives as they wish. This is more and more true for not just white men, but for men and women of all races.

Rationalism and scientific thought have been a major contributor to this growing freedom and as well as civil society in general, but it is not surprising that at many points virulent anti-rationalism would re-emerge and try to pull us back to the dark ages. With freedom, there is uncertainty. Without an absolute "moral" foundation, you are responsible for deciding for what is wrong and right. Some people do not like uncertainty and they do not like to decide for themselves.
As a result, we have radicals attacking skyscrapers, plotting the death of cartoonists (link here), and Christian archbishops supporting the imposition of Islamic law.

I do not think that the Archbishop's comment mark the end of this of foolishness, but it is a sign of things to come.

The Maverick

Cosmic Variance posts on John McCain's statement that there is strong evidence that thimerosal is responsible for the increased rate of Autism in America. While I don't know yet whether McCain is anti-science in the way of Bush II, I think this is certainly related to his "maverick" streak. It is likely that McCain will take many more of these kind of bold positions in the coming months.

However, I think this will probably be a positive for many people, possibly even among independent voters. I think many people are skeptical of science, or like to buy into the under-science (such as science that tells us we are secretly being poisoned with Diet Coke or something like that). They don't see this as McCain being an anti-science idiot, but a brave free-thinker.

I also think this may be also be at the root of McCain's problem with conservatives, his recklessly self-righteous. This is a case where some caution is a good thing. He may have given a legitimacy boost to a movement that rightfully should be fading in the face of good science. All this from the experienced, elder statesman.

Meijer's Versatile Canvas Bags

A few months ago, we started using Meijer's reusable shopping bags, which they sell for $0.99. They also have similar bags at Target. We have found them very usual for other things, especially travel. They are a superb product.

There is a lots of web discussion about these types of bags. In this article, Meijer claims the bags are somewhat popular. Anecdotely, I've seen probably ten percent adoption rates at the stores. I think this will climb significantly over the next year.

I have to imagine that there have been earilier attempts at bringing reusable shopping bags to market. The question is why are they just now reaching the tipping point? While aised "green consciouness" is probably a factor, I think something else is going on. It's related to design (Virginia Postrel outlines the importance of aesthetics and product design in her book The Substance of Style). The bags are very sturdy, but they are also visually appealing and easy to use.

I think once the right design was hit on, the rest was simple. Find the right price point, place them at the front of the store and they sell themselves.

UPDATE: The bags are not canvas, but are made from recycled plastic bags.

A Fun New Video

It's rare (for me at least) to encounter a good music video these days, but this Erykah Badu video is one of the most fun and original I've seen in awhile. Having worked in a music store, it brought back some good memories. It also reminded me of some of my favorite parody album covers. Here's a classic that I never get tired of: